The hottest Moore's law begins with semiconductors

2022-08-12
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Moore's Law: from semiconductor to physical limit

in the wave of information technology development, the measurement of the height of the wave once became a "worry" in the industry. In other words, how to measure the speed of information technology progress has become a problem that has plagued the industry for a long time. Against this background, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, formally proposed "Moore's law" in 1965 through a large number of data research and collation. So far, this law has experienced wind and rain for half a century, and has played an indelible role in the development of the semiconductor industry

what is "Moore's law"

in the article "let integrated circuits fill more components", Moore predicted that the number of transistors and resistors integrated in semiconductor chips would double every year. Shortly afterwards, Moore wrote another paper stating that "double every year" was revised to "double every two years". In detail, Moore's law is that when the price remains unchanged, the number of components that can be accommodated in a semiconductor chip will double in about two years, and its performance will also improve year-on-year

of course, the data in the following decades have proved that the number of components that can be accommodated in semiconductor chips will double in about 18 months (that is, the average value predicted by Moore before and after). For this, Moore said that he did not mention the inference of "doubling every 18 months", and according to his data chart, this change cycle is 24 months

in fact, as an analysis and prediction rule of development trend, Moore's law has been wandering in questioning and self proving. Because the integration degree is inversely proportional to the initial distance between fixtures corresponding to the marking distance in the crystal standard, and the tube price is within 80 ~ 115mm, Moore's law has become a speculative means of economic benefits. Take the production solution of Wafer Factory: improving the lubrication conditions of relative moving parts to produce IC as an example. On the premise of continuous progress in manufacturing technology, the output of IC will double every 18 months. In other words, its cost will be reduced by 50%. At the same time, in the process of the development of process technology in the semiconductor industry, Moore's law has gradually become a benchmark to measure the pace of the development of the semiconductor industry. If the process technology of the semiconductor enterprise does not reach the data predicted by Moore's law within 8 months of the experimental force and peak experimental force of each 1 liquid crystal display, I'm sorry, you may have been "out" (that is, behind the average level of the current semiconductor industry). In this regard, This speculation method plays a good auxiliary role in the study of the economic benefits of the semiconductor industry

questioning and self certification of Moore's law

so far, Moore's law has been "published" for more than 50 years. With the rapid improvement of semiconductor chip manufacturing technology, people can't help but wonder how many components can be integrated per unit area of semiconductor chips will eventually reach? Will Moore's law always exist

in fact, there is no clear answer to the question of how many components can be integrated per unit area of semiconductor chips will eventually reach. However, experts predict that the physical limit of semiconductor chip manufacturing process is nm. Based on this calculation, Moore's law seems to only "survive" for 10 years

will Moore's law be out of date? How long can Moore's law survive? This topic has been discussed for decades. For example, when the mainstream process technology of semiconductor chips is 90nm, some people believe that 45nm will become the physical limit; When the process technology reaches 45nm, some people believe that 22nm will become the limit. There is a saying called "a good knife is not afraid of grinding", and Moore's law is exactly this good knife

so what is the physical limit? From a technical point of view, as the transistor size continues to shrink, the leakage between the source and drain stage will increase, resulting in the transistor can not work normally. Based on this environment, the 3D transistor technology launched by Samsung has solved this problem well, which also makes the manufacturing process further, so as to gradually reach today's 10nm

at the "Intel precision manufacturing day" summit held in September this year, Intel once again reflected the accuracy of Moore's law by taking 14nm and 10nm process processes as examples and comparing their transistor density and cost. Mark Bohr, senior academician of Intel and director of process architecture and integration of technology and manufacturing division, also said that Intel still adheres to the tick tock strategy at the technical level, which is also the best embodiment of Moore's law

influence of Moore's law

at first, Moore's law was proposed only to predict the development trend of the semiconductor industry. However, with its popularity in the semiconductor industry, all walks of life outside the world competed to imitate it, thus deriving multiple versions of "Moore's law", whose far-reaching impact has benefited our lives a lot

in terms of economy, with the gradual improvement of the manufacturing process, the transistor size is also getting smaller and smaller, but the performance has been greatly improved, and the cost has also been continuously reduced

in terms of technology, Moore's deduction and summary popularized complex and expensive computing as a necessity of life. From the data analysis, these innovations at present stem from Moore's findings

in terms of social impact, the popularity of computing has changed our lifestyle and promoted the development of technology and society, which is a great blessing for all walks of life

Will Moore's law die out

in fact, since the introduction of Moore's law, its survival time has been a controversial topic in the industry. Nowadays, when countless insiders in the semiconductor industry say that Moore's law will die out, the scientific and technological community broke a surprising news: 1nm process "came out". This news came from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, whose laboratory researcher Ali Garvey said: "this study shows that our transistors will no longer be limited to 5nm gate. If we use the appropriate half conductor material to produce the best results, Moore's law will continue to be valid."

it is understood that the appropriate semiconductor material mentioned by GAVI is molybdenum disulfide. When the gate length of silicon material is 5nm or even longer, its advantage is quite obvious, but when the gate length is below 5nm, it will produce a "tunnel effect", thus preventing current from flowing from the source to the drain. This situation will make the electrons out of control and unable to achieve the desired effect. Molybdenum disulfide is different. In this environment, the electrons flowing through it are heavier, so the current can be controlled from the source to the drain through a shorter grid. Through a series of experimental tests, researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory abandoned the traditional lithography technology and chose 1nm carbon nanotubes as the gate, so as to better cooperate with molybdenum disulfide transistors to control their electron flow

this experimental research result once again proves that Moore's law still exists. At present, it seems that the extinction of Moore's law directly depends on the physical limits of semiconductor chip manufacturing process. If the semiconductor chip manufacturing process does not reach the limit, Moore's law will always be "alive". In fact, although Moore's law originates from the semiconductor industry, it will not end in the semiconductor industry. Its ideas and views have laid a rich foundation for all modern technologies, and its innovative related products have been perfectly integrated with our lives. In the future, it will represent a trend that has been existing in various fields such as IOT, medical treatment and education

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